End of the year 2007 – With current available inventory still at a 20-year low and demand for a slice of Jackson Hole paradise at an all-time high, expect to see prices continue to climb in 2008. The only relief in site, for new affordable housing (inventory), is the proposed Teton Meadows Ranch (TMR) subdivision in South Park. TMR is proposing to create 500 units, deed restricting 400 as affordable. The remaining 100 units will be free market. It is unclear as to whether the 100 units will come in the form of vacant lots or newly built single-family homes. Don’t hold your breath though, this project is getting lots of resistance because of it’s density and location, even though the developer is proposing a 50% open space corridor surrounding the development.

End of the year 2006 – With current available inventory at a 20-year low and demand for a slice of Jackson Hole paradise at an all-time high, expect to see prices continue to climb in 2007. While there are several rumors floating around about new development, don’t expect to see any relief in available inventory for at least the next 15 months.

End of the year 2005 - Jackson Hole continues to attract buyers and baby boomers, with a high amount of disposable income, who are actively searching for the ideal outdoor paradise. They are parking their retirement and investment dollars in their Rocky Mountain retreats for financial and emotional reasons. While their Jackson Hole homes continue to appreciate, they enjoy creating lasting family memories.

The universal Law of Supply and Demand controls our market, and we have moved into a strong Seller’s market. Consider the following when we compare 1995 to 2005: the inventory is 1/4th of what it was in 1995, and yet there were three times the number of Buyers in 2005. Teton County has already protected 98% of its land from development through conservation efforts and public land holdings. Every year, we see more land owners placing their ranches and parcels into conversation easements to prevent development for perpetuity. Other owners of large tracts are opting to develop low-density/large parcel home sites to meet the demands of affluent privacy-seeking buyers. So, with that said, expect to see a continuation of increased prices and dwindling inventory for the foreseeable future.

End of the year 2004 – It has become crystal clear that, while Jackson Hole experienced a bump in the real estate road the last few years, this valley will continue to attract Buyers who are looking for an unmatched quality of life in an outdoor recreational paradise. When you combine the new buyers who have been attracted to our valley by Four Seasons, the Hillwood Group, and other area planned golf developments with Baby Boomers, who have already discovered JH and have a high amount of disposable income, it is crystal clear that Jackson Hole should continue to be a great investment in family and lifestyle.

End of the year 2003 – Overall, we are once again expecting a slow but steady recovery for 2004. Inventory is the key component. While both homes and condos are seeing inventories drop, 17% and 24% respectively, vacant land continues to flood the market with 15% more inventory than 2002 and 112% more than in 2000. Therefore, expect to see rising average and median list prices in homes and condos and, because of the steadily improving economy, expect to see more money flowing into vacant land but the list prices holding steady.

End of the Year 2002 - Overall, we are expecting a slow but steady recovery for 2003. What’s really exciting is we are entering into an unprecedented period in real estate history. Over the next 5 years Teton County will see over $1 billion in new real estate values. The vast majority will come in the form of new second home developments, which historically are low density, with large amounts of open space and the average price is triple that of the locals’ market.

Consider the following projects already approved or close to being approved in Teton County: The Four Seasons, The Canyon Club, Spring Creek Resort (The Ranches, Amangani, The Ridge, etc…), Rafter J retirement center, the Four Lazy F development, Vail Associates expansion of the Jackson Hole Golf & Tennis, Flat Creek Business Park and Mr. Varley’s downtown residential and commercial project. These projects alone will create over one billion dollars in new real estate values. This does not include the construction of new single-family homes in these projects. Nor does it include many smaller commercial and residential projects underway or about to be approved throughout the county.

While some will feel these types of new projects are not what the valley needs the fact of the matter is they are coming and most of the projects will greatly enhance our tax base, create more middle management higher paying jobs and better public and private services. Almost all of these new projects are geared towards second homeowners and the aging baby boomers who, because of their age or time in the valley, will not strain our schools and public services.

As such, I see the next five years as an opportunity to further strengthen our local economy and shape our community character without having to sacrifice the environment. And, while our future depends on how our elected officials respond it will, to a great extent, depend on all of us to speak up and get involved.

End of the Year 2001 - Because of the excess available inventory in the vacant residential lot market I do not expect to see rising lot prices in 2002, especially if the proposed Porter Estate and Seherr-Thoss affordable housing inventory hit the market this summer. Overall, I feel the rest of the market should continue to climb in the average and median sales prices and because of the low interest rates expect to see the entry-level segment (first time home buyers) of our market continue its climb, especially condos and townhomes. However, the entry-level segment could see a decline in average sales prices if a flood of new affordable housing lots and condo/townhomes are introduced this year in the South Park area. While no affordable housing inventory will be ready to move into or build on this summer, the introduction of so many units will certainly sway many first time homebuyers away from existing inventory while they wait for the newer and lower priced products.

End of the year 2000 - Because of the excess available inventory of high-end homes (79 over $1 million and 22 over $5 million) expect to see prices soften. This segment of the market is highly speculative and you should see some prices adjust to market value. Because of the continuing lack of vacant lot inventory expect to see a continuation of rapidly rising prices for vacant land.
*End of the year 1999 - Because of a lack of inventory, look for the Racquet Club and N. of Jackson to continue their rise in average prices. If history repeats itself also look for a rise in land values on the West Bank. The sharp rise in land prices N. of Jackson usually signals the next move in prices on the West Bank (see hot spots in land sales).

End of the year 1998 - Look for Jackson Hole Mtn. Resort to lead the charge in 1999. The average price per transaction should be up across the board, especially in the condo/townhome market. Jackson Hole Golf & Tennis Resort and areas north to Moose have lagged behind in the past several years and are now poised for a sharp increase in values. Also, look to Teton Pines and Spring Creek Resort to have another record-breaking year in lots and homes.

End of the year 1997 - Look for the overall market to continue its climb. Keep an eye especially on Teton Village and Spring Creek Ranch - with the expected completion of the new hotel at Spring Creek, speculation will be high. Because of declining inventory, lot sales should also be very brisk. I feel the hot spots will still be specialty properties with river access, Teton views and privacy. Also, look for the number of million dollar-plus transactions to increase again over the record set in 1997.

End of the year 1996 - I feel the market is going to remain slow in the less than $500,000 range. Condos and townhomes in the resort districts should do well this year. Lot sales over 3 acres should be very brisk. I feel the hot spots will be specialty properties with river access, Teton views, privacy or all three. Also, look for the number of million dollar + transactions to increase over the record of 1996.

End of the year 1995 -Expect a reduction in the capital gains tax. This reduction combined with a decline in the strength of the stock market and lower interest rates, should lead more people to invest in real estate in 1996. Because of these factors, along with Jacksonõs growing popularity and media exposure, I feel that 1996 will be another strong year with prices increasing across the board with the possible exception of homes between $200,000 - $400,000.